Oct. 26, 2010
Veterans, Gun-Owners, Seniors, and Teachers
Campaign 2010 Analysis: The Raese/Manchin U.S. Senate Race
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
In any election year, particularly those in the off-Presidential election years, certain groups
of voters hold significant influence in the final results for two main reasons. First, their
members are usually among the better informed voters, having studied the issues of
importance to their organizations. Secondly, they vote in greater numbers than the
general public. That's why candidates oftentimes beat a path to their door.
In West Virginia, three of the most influential organizations with voting strength are present and retired public school teachers and school service personnel, senior citizens, and veterans. If a candidate can get his or her share of votes from these three groups, then they have a serious leg up on their competition.
We've asked HNN's Senior Political Analyst Jack Ellis to take his best guess at how each of these three groups will be voting in the Raese/Manchin U.S. Senate contest this year.
HNN: OK, Jack, first of all, which of these three groups has the most at stake in this U.S. Senate race? Who is the most motivated to come out this year to vote?
Ellis: Ordinarily, I'd say the teachers and school service personnel would be among the most active to get their people out. But since this is a federal contest, it's not as important to the teachers as a Governor's race might be. So I'd say the most active will be seniors worried about the effect of Obamacare on their Medicare. They are seriously concerned about that, as one might imagine. Plus, they're getting more and more organized.
HNN: So who gets the Seniors vote this time?
Ellis: Joe Manchin will get a decent amount, but I look for John Raese to surprise by getting a lot of senior votes this year, based on his opposition to Obamacare. Raese has shown himself to have a good touch on the campaign trail this year, and he's visited senior centers everywhere he goes. So Raese wins a majority of the seniors this time around.
HNN: How about the teachers and school service personnel, current and retired?
Ellis: Well, they used to back Manchin so strongly, you know, back in the days of WVEA President Tom Lange. He and Manchin were very tight. But so many educators are inflamed over Manchin not providing a pay raise for them in any of his five years in the Governor's Office. So they just might give Raese a chance, even though he's a bit of an unknown quantity.
But one thing the teachers and Raese do agree with is to end federal programs like "No Child Left Behind." Raese has been adamant about returning all educational efforts to the state and local level, and and many teachers like that, as do parents. I'd say Raese and Manchin will split the teacher and school service personnel vote about evenly.
HNN: Veterans?
Ellis: The veterans are a great group who do a lot for their communities around the state. It's no exaggeration to say that as the veterans go, so goes the election, because people listen to where the veterans are coming from in their communities on elections. So they're real opinion leaders.
Neither Raese nor Manchin served in uniform. Raese has mentioned on the campaign trail his respect for his older brother's service in the Marines in Vietnam, along with his father's World War II service. Raese has always run on a very pro-military platform in all of his races, and he decries "tying our soldiers" hands in Afghanistan with stringest rules of engagement, bringing them into harm's way.
As Governor, Manchin has served as Commander of the state's Army and Air National Guard. That includes deploying National Guard units to help with state disasters like floods, as well as authorizing West Virginia members of the National Guard to serve in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I think both men will hold their own here and divide up the veterans along party lines among those who vote this year.
HNN: And how about the hunters and gun-owners this year?
Ellis: Now here's an intriguing one. As you know, the gun vote is huge in West Virginia. That's why Manchin was comfortable doing that rifle shot ad this year, though some gunowners I've talked with felt that it was a little over the top. Manchin received the NRA endorsement, probably because he's an incumbent Governor and has received it before.
John Raese is a lifetime member of the NRA, has always been strong on all the NRA's gun issues, as he's a gun collector and built a target practice range in Morgantown. I think you're going to see Raese's campaign do something big in this last week of the campaign for all the gun folks, something second only to Charleton Heston's visit to Beckley a few years ago.
If Raese can prove to gun owners that he's as good or better than Manchin on the gun issues, it could put him over the top on Election Day.
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Veterans, Gun-Owners, Seniors, and Teachers
Campaign 2010 Analysis: The Raese/Manchin U.S. Senate Race
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
In any election year, particularly those in the off-Presidential election years, certain groups
of voters hold significant influence in the final results for two main reasons. First, their
members are usually among the better informed voters, having studied the issues of
importance to their organizations. Secondly, they vote in greater numbers than the
general public. That's why candidates oftentimes beat a path to their door.
In West Virginia, three of the most influential organizations with voting strength are present and retired public school teachers and school service personnel, senior citizens, and veterans. If a candidate can get his or her share of votes from these three groups, then they have a serious leg up on their competition.
We've asked HNN's Senior Political Analyst Jack Ellis to take his best guess at how each of these three groups will be voting in the Raese/Manchin U.S. Senate contest this year.
HNN: OK, Jack, first of all, which of these three groups has the most at stake in this U.S. Senate race? Who is the most motivated to come out this year to vote?
Ellis: Ordinarily, I'd say the teachers and school service personnel would be among the most active to get their people out. But since this is a federal contest, it's not as important to the teachers as a Governor's race might be. So I'd say the most active will be seniors worried about the effect of Obamacare on their Medicare. They are seriously concerned about that, as one might imagine. Plus, they're getting more and more organized.
HNN: So who gets the Seniors vote this time?
Ellis: Joe Manchin will get a decent amount, but I look for John Raese to surprise by getting a lot of senior votes this year, based on his opposition to Obamacare. Raese has shown himself to have a good touch on the campaign trail this year, and he's visited senior centers everywhere he goes. So Raese wins a majority of the seniors this time around.
HNN: How about the teachers and school service personnel, current and retired?
Ellis: Well, they used to back Manchin so strongly, you know, back in the days of WVEA President Tom Lange. He and Manchin were very tight. But so many educators are inflamed over Manchin not providing a pay raise for them in any of his five years in the Governor's Office. So they just might give Raese a chance, even though he's a bit of an unknown quantity.
But one thing the teachers and Raese do agree with is to end federal programs like "No Child Left Behind." Raese has been adamant about returning all educational efforts to the state and local level, and and many teachers like that, as do parents. I'd say Raese and Manchin will split the teacher and school service personnel vote about evenly.
HNN: Veterans?
Ellis: The veterans are a great group who do a lot for their communities around the state. It's no exaggeration to say that as the veterans go, so goes the election, because people listen to where the veterans are coming from in their communities on elections. So they're real opinion leaders.
Neither Raese nor Manchin served in uniform. Raese has mentioned on the campaign trail his respect for his older brother's service in the Marines in Vietnam, along with his father's World War II service. Raese has always run on a very pro-military platform in all of his races, and he decries "tying our soldiers" hands in Afghanistan with stringest rules of engagement, bringing them into harm's way.
As Governor, Manchin has served as Commander of the state's Army and Air National Guard. That includes deploying National Guard units to help with state disasters like floods, as well as authorizing West Virginia members of the National Guard to serve in Iraq and Afghanistan.
I think both men will hold their own here and divide up the veterans along party lines among those who vote this year.
HNN: And how about the hunters and gun-owners this year?
Ellis: Now here's an intriguing one. As you know, the gun vote is huge in West Virginia. That's why Manchin was comfortable doing that rifle shot ad this year, though some gunowners I've talked with felt that it was a little over the top. Manchin received the NRA endorsement, probably because he's an incumbent Governor and has received it before.
John Raese is a lifetime member of the NRA, has always been strong on all the NRA's gun issues, as he's a gun collector and built a target practice range in Morgantown. I think you're going to see Raese's campaign do something big in this last week of the campaign for all the gun folks, something second only to Charleton Heston's visit to Beckley a few years ago.
If Raese can prove to gun owners that he's as good or better than Manchin on the gun issues, it could put him over the top on Election Day.
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