Oct. 20, 2010
The Next U.S. Senator? Raese Up by Seven in Latest Poll
Campaign 2010 Analysis: The Raese/Manchin U.S. Senate Race
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
Republican U.S. Senate candidate John Raese now leads by seven points in the latest poll, released by Rasmussen on Wednesday. Here is how the poll is described in the respected national polling firm's press release:
"Republican John Raese has now opened up a seven-point lead over West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin in perhaps the most improbably close U.S. Senate contest in the country. It’s Raese’s biggest lead yet.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely West Virginia Voters finds Raese with 50% support to Manchin’s 43%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided. The West Virginia race now shifts back from a Toss-Up to Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings."
Poll conducted after debate
Importantly, this poll by Rasmussen was conducted on Tuesday, October 19th, the day after the
sole U.S. candidates' debate hosted by West Virginia Public Broadcasting and the Associated
Press. The survey of 750 likely voters in West Virginia has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage
points with a 95% level of confidence.
"When people got a chance to see these two candidates, Manchin and Raese, for more than a 30 second TV spot, Raese was more convincing in his arguments," said Jack Ellis, HNN's Chief Political Analyst. "The debate may not have had any knockout blows, but it did give Raese a chance to show those on the fence that he is a reasonable candidate."
"This was important for Raese after having all those personal attack ads run against him by the Manchin campaign," said Ellis. "The Manchin attacks ads are being de-fanged, and Raese's debate performance was part of that. This poll shows clearly that the voters are tired of the level of negativity in this campaign, particularly the nastier attack ads coming from Manchin."
Looking Ahead to November 2nd
So what does Raese opening up this kind of lead mean coming less than two weeks from the election on November 2nd? Is it decisive for a Raese victory?
"Raese still needs to keep churning away, getting all those motivated troops to talk up his candidacy to his family and friends like any candidate needs to do," said Ellis. "But yes, this is Raese's race to lose now, as Manchin's support appears to be fading bit by bit. Manchin just hasn't motivated his base like Raese has."
"The real power of this latest poll is the effect it will have on the Early Voters
across the state, who have until October 30th to vote early at their county
courthouse," said Ellis.. "With this poll out now, it's becoming fashionable
to say, "I've already voted for Raese," so I expect there will be an uptick in
voters doing that now so they can tell their friends and encourage them to
do the same.
"Raese's campaign has turned into an across the board statement about Manchin and Obama," said Ellis. "This is coming from concerned Democrats and Independents, as well as Republicans--West Virginians all. This is a chance to be a part of history, to be part of the people's voice in this year's election. People will feel that they did their part to take their country back. Manchin just doesn't have anything to sell that tops that."
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The Next U.S. Senator? Raese Up by Seven in Latest Poll
Campaign 2010 Analysis: The Raese/Manchin U.S. Senate Race
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
Republican U.S. Senate candidate John Raese now leads by seven points in the latest poll, released by Rasmussen on Wednesday. Here is how the poll is described in the respected national polling firm's press release:
"Republican John Raese has now opened up a seven-point lead over West Virginia Governor Joe Manchin in perhaps the most improbably close U.S. Senate contest in the country. It’s Raese’s biggest lead yet.
A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely West Virginia Voters finds Raese with 50% support to Manchin’s 43%. Two percent (2%) like some other candidate in the race, and five percent (5%) are undecided. The West Virginia race now shifts back from a Toss-Up to Leans Republican in the Rasmussen Reports Election 2010 Senate Balance of Power rankings."
Poll conducted after debate
Importantly, this poll by Rasmussen was conducted on Tuesday, October 19th, the day after the
sole U.S. candidates' debate hosted by West Virginia Public Broadcasting and the Associated
Press. The survey of 750 likely voters in West Virginia has a margin of error of +/- 4 percentage
points with a 95% level of confidence.
"When people got a chance to see these two candidates, Manchin and Raese, for more than a 30 second TV spot, Raese was more convincing in his arguments," said Jack Ellis, HNN's Chief Political Analyst. "The debate may not have had any knockout blows, but it did give Raese a chance to show those on the fence that he is a reasonable candidate."
"This was important for Raese after having all those personal attack ads run against him by the Manchin campaign," said Ellis. "The Manchin attacks ads are being de-fanged, and Raese's debate performance was part of that. This poll shows clearly that the voters are tired of the level of negativity in this campaign, particularly the nastier attack ads coming from Manchin."
Looking Ahead to November 2nd
So what does Raese opening up this kind of lead mean coming less than two weeks from the election on November 2nd? Is it decisive for a Raese victory?
"Raese still needs to keep churning away, getting all those motivated troops to talk up his candidacy to his family and friends like any candidate needs to do," said Ellis. "But yes, this is Raese's race to lose now, as Manchin's support appears to be fading bit by bit. Manchin just hasn't motivated his base like Raese has."
"The real power of this latest poll is the effect it will have on the Early Voters
across the state, who have until October 30th to vote early at their county
courthouse," said Ellis.. "With this poll out now, it's becoming fashionable
to say, "I've already voted for Raese," so I expect there will be an uptick in
voters doing that now so they can tell their friends and encourage them to
do the same.
"Raese's campaign has turned into an across the board statement about Manchin and Obama," said Ellis. "This is coming from concerned Democrats and Independents, as well as Republicans--West Virginians all. This is a chance to be a part of history, to be part of the people's voice in this year's election. People will feel that they did their part to take their country back. Manchin just doesn't have anything to sell that tops that."
Share This Story:
Make HNN Your Homepage (IE Users Only)
