Oct. 12, 2010
Attacking Raese's Family: Can This Tactic Possibly Work?
Campaign 2010: The U.S. Senate Race
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
Governor Manchin has run an unorthodox campaign against John Raese for the U.S. Senate from the get go and with poor results thus far. Manchin opted out of running any form of positive TV commercials, instead going for Raese's jugular in an attempt to stem the progress of Raese's progress in the polls.
As the race heats up for a climactic finish in three weeks, we asked Huntingtonnews.net's Senior Political Analyst Jack Ellis what we can expect next from both candidates.
"Joe Manchin has acted far more desperate than I ever would imagine an incumbent Governor could," said Ellis. "Take a look: Manchin's been re-elected handily, hails from a growing part of the state, and is a member of the majority party. Yet he can't get above a certain percentage in the polls and has even lost the lead. The wheels have just about come off this guy's wagon, and Joe knows it."
"I guess that's why he's decided to break all the established rules of
political campaigns for decades and has gone after Raese's wife,
Elizabeth," said Ellis. "This is a very risky business for Manchin. First
it makes him look like a coward that won't take on Raese man to man
in a debate but doesn't mind slapping the guy's wife around. This is
very bad form in West Virginia."
"Secondly, as people learn more of the Raeses' story, Manchin's attack falls apart," said Ellis. "The Raeses have a special needs daughter who is going to a school that helps her," said Ellis. "So instead of a boarding school experience, Mrs. Raese goes down there with her daughters during the school year. John goes down on weekends, and they all come back to West Virginia for holidays and a long summer."
"So why does Mrs. Raese vote in Florida?" asked Ellis. "Because over the years, she's been down there with her girls in school. She couldn't easily make it back home to West Virginia, so she could either sit out from voting altogether or do her civic duty down there. There is no great mystery here. And by the way, how come we never heard all this handwringing from Manchin when it came to where Rockefeller or Caperton's kids went to school? I'd like to hear an answer to that question."
"Besides, no one knew when Robert Byrd was going to pass away," said Ellis. "How phony could it have been if the Raeses uprooted their kids from their school down there and hurried them back to Morgantown? At least the Raeses are concerned parents first, and I think people give them a wide berth on that."
So what can we expect more negativity from Manchin? And will Raese be inclined to fight fire with fire at some point?
"The next poll will tell the tale," said Ellis. "If Raese has taken
Manchin's worst assaults--and they've been pretty bad--but he
still is firmly in the lead, then I think we see Raese continuing
his issue-based campaign that has taken him from 16 points down
to 6 points ahead. If the polls tighten, he may have to take a couple
shots at Manchin, but that doesn't seem to be his druthers right now.
He's doing too well without resorting to that.
"As for Manchin, I just don't think he's got anywhere to go if he doesn't catch Raese now," said Ellis. "He's abandoned the dignified Governor image that had done so well for him until this race, and he has really turned people off with this attack mode, especially against Raese's family."
"A candidate's family is there for support only--they aren't fair game to go after, especially a little twelve year old girl. Everyone knows that," said Ellis. "You notice that Raese has never said one word about First Lady Gayle Manchin. And I doubt he will. John Raese is old school. People want their U.S. Senator to be a gentleman, not a street brawler, and Raese understands that."
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Attacking Raese's Family: Can This Tactic Possibly Work?
Campaign 2010: The U.S. Senate Race
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
Governor Manchin has run an unorthodox campaign against John Raese for the U.S. Senate from the get go and with poor results thus far. Manchin opted out of running any form of positive TV commercials, instead going for Raese's jugular in an attempt to stem the progress of Raese's progress in the polls.
As the race heats up for a climactic finish in three weeks, we asked Huntingtonnews.net's Senior Political Analyst Jack Ellis what we can expect next from both candidates.
"Joe Manchin has acted far more desperate than I ever would imagine an incumbent Governor could," said Ellis. "Take a look: Manchin's been re-elected handily, hails from a growing part of the state, and is a member of the majority party. Yet he can't get above a certain percentage in the polls and has even lost the lead. The wheels have just about come off this guy's wagon, and Joe knows it."
"I guess that's why he's decided to break all the established rules of
political campaigns for decades and has gone after Raese's wife,
Elizabeth," said Ellis. "This is a very risky business for Manchin. First
it makes him look like a coward that won't take on Raese man to man
in a debate but doesn't mind slapping the guy's wife around. This is
very bad form in West Virginia."
"Secondly, as people learn more of the Raeses' story, Manchin's attack falls apart," said Ellis. "The Raeses have a special needs daughter who is going to a school that helps her," said Ellis. "So instead of a boarding school experience, Mrs. Raese goes down there with her daughters during the school year. John goes down on weekends, and they all come back to West Virginia for holidays and a long summer."
"So why does Mrs. Raese vote in Florida?" asked Ellis. "Because over the years, she's been down there with her girls in school. She couldn't easily make it back home to West Virginia, so she could either sit out from voting altogether or do her civic duty down there. There is no great mystery here. And by the way, how come we never heard all this handwringing from Manchin when it came to where Rockefeller or Caperton's kids went to school? I'd like to hear an answer to that question."
"Besides, no one knew when Robert Byrd was going to pass away," said Ellis. "How phony could it have been if the Raeses uprooted their kids from their school down there and hurried them back to Morgantown? At least the Raeses are concerned parents first, and I think people give them a wide berth on that."
So what can we expect more negativity from Manchin? And will Raese be inclined to fight fire with fire at some point?
"The next poll will tell the tale," said Ellis. "If Raese has taken
Manchin's worst assaults--and they've been pretty bad--but he
still is firmly in the lead, then I think we see Raese continuing
his issue-based campaign that has taken him from 16 points down
to 6 points ahead. If the polls tighten, he may have to take a couple
shots at Manchin, but that doesn't seem to be his druthers right now.
He's doing too well without resorting to that.
"As for Manchin, I just don't think he's got anywhere to go if he doesn't catch Raese now," said Ellis. "He's abandoned the dignified Governor image that had done so well for him until this race, and he has really turned people off with this attack mode, especially against Raese's family."
"A candidate's family is there for support only--they aren't fair game to go after, especially a little twelve year old girl. Everyone knows that," said Ellis. "You notice that Raese has never said one word about First Lady Gayle Manchin. And I doubt he will. John Raese is old school. People want their U.S. Senator to be a gentleman, not a street brawler, and Raese understands that."
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