Oct. 7, 2010
Raese for Senate: A Political Earthquake in West Virginia?
Campaign 2010 Analysis: The U.S. Senate Race
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
National political reporters and pundits--even Democratic ones--have seen the
polls across the country for several weeks now and have predicted Republican
gains in the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. The more careful
observers have granted that the the GOP would likely win the House but only
pick up a few seats in the U.S. Senate.
That conventional wisdom began to shift a couple of weeks ago with the rising numbers of GOP U.S. Senate candidates like Sharron Angle in Harry Reid's Nevada and Linda McMahon in Connecticut.
Then along came John Raese, Republican U.S. Senate candidate in West Virginia. Raese has been the sleeper of this year's campaign, making steady progress with every passing poll against Democratic Joe Manchin.
Now, the latest national poll has Raese ahead by five points over Manchin, and that's a big deal in West Virginia politics for a Republican. So what's really going on here? What are the dynamics in play that makes Raese appear poised for an upset of historic proportions? After all, it's been over 50 years since West Virginians have sent a Republican to the United States Senate.
"First of all, there's long been a misconception about Democrats not wanting to vote for a statewide Republican candidate here," said Jack Ellis, HNN's senior political analyst. "While it may be true that many Democrats would naturally prefer to vote for one of their own, most of them are actually quite open-minded about the options given them by the WV GOP. They just want a good candidate, that's all."
"Take a look at the Republicans they've gone for in recent times," said Ellis.
"If your choice was between Republican Brent Benjamin for State Supreme
Court or a screaming meemie named Warren McGraw, which would you choose?
Democrats take their politics seriously in this state, and they don't want to be
embarassed by someone like McGraw losing his cool in a political race."
"They likely think to themselves something like this," said Ellis. "If this guy can't handle the heat of a political campaign, how's he going to do in a high political office with all the stresses it brings?"
"So they go for Benjamin, not because he's Oliver Wendell Holmes but because
he's competent and won't embarass them in office," said Ellis. "Same with Shelley
Moore Capito. She doesn't offend, see? If Republicans are polite and ask
sincerely for Democrats votes, well, Democrats like that. It's more than they
get from some of their own who take them for granted."
"That's why John Raese is doing so well this year," said Ellis. "Beyond the fact that we're all in the mood for something more conservative than Barack Obama this year, Raese has shown the people of West Virginia enormous respect by getting out there and going all over the state in a barnstorming campaign that would make Huey Long proud. I've never seen anything like this Raese campaign for going from Wheeling to Putnam County, all in the same day."
"The Democrats, like all of us in West Virginia, like to be appreciated," said Ellis. "They can forgive a lot if they at least see you out there trying hard, doing your best to put your best foot forward with them, and yes, making a strong case for your beliefs. John Raese has never had a hard time articulating his beliefs, and this time, he's making his case even more persuasively to the people, one vote at a time."
And Joe Manchin, isn't he out campaigning, too?
"Well yes, but not as hard as Raese," said Ellis. "Manchin didn't even send a representative to the big statewide WV for LIfe rally last weekend. But Raese was there. He made the time, he took their concerns seriously. That's what people want in a U.S. Senator. If Raese keeps this up, I don't see how Manchin can catch him now, and that is going to lead to a political earthquake on November 2nd in this state."
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Raese for Senate: A Political Earthquake in West Virginia?
Campaign 2010 Analysis: The U.S. Senate Race
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
National political reporters and pundits--even Democratic ones--have seen the
polls across the country for several weeks now and have predicted Republican
gains in the House of Representatives and the U.S. Senate. The more careful
observers have granted that the the GOP would likely win the House but only
pick up a few seats in the U.S. Senate.
That conventional wisdom began to shift a couple of weeks ago with the rising numbers of GOP U.S. Senate candidates like Sharron Angle in Harry Reid's Nevada and Linda McMahon in Connecticut.
Then along came John Raese, Republican U.S. Senate candidate in West Virginia. Raese has been the sleeper of this year's campaign, making steady progress with every passing poll against Democratic Joe Manchin.
Now, the latest national poll has Raese ahead by five points over Manchin, and that's a big deal in West Virginia politics for a Republican. So what's really going on here? What are the dynamics in play that makes Raese appear poised for an upset of historic proportions? After all, it's been over 50 years since West Virginians have sent a Republican to the United States Senate.
"First of all, there's long been a misconception about Democrats not wanting to vote for a statewide Republican candidate here," said Jack Ellis, HNN's senior political analyst. "While it may be true that many Democrats would naturally prefer to vote for one of their own, most of them are actually quite open-minded about the options given them by the WV GOP. They just want a good candidate, that's all."
"Take a look at the Republicans they've gone for in recent times," said Ellis.
"If your choice was between Republican Brent Benjamin for State Supreme
Court or a screaming meemie named Warren McGraw, which would you choose?
Democrats take their politics seriously in this state, and they don't want to be
embarassed by someone like McGraw losing his cool in a political race."
"They likely think to themselves something like this," said Ellis. "If this guy can't handle the heat of a political campaign, how's he going to do in a high political office with all the stresses it brings?"
"So they go for Benjamin, not because he's Oliver Wendell Holmes but because
he's competent and won't embarass them in office," said Ellis. "Same with Shelley
Moore Capito. She doesn't offend, see? If Republicans are polite and ask
sincerely for Democrats votes, well, Democrats like that. It's more than they
get from some of their own who take them for granted."
"That's why John Raese is doing so well this year," said Ellis. "Beyond the fact that we're all in the mood for something more conservative than Barack Obama this year, Raese has shown the people of West Virginia enormous respect by getting out there and going all over the state in a barnstorming campaign that would make Huey Long proud. I've never seen anything like this Raese campaign for going from Wheeling to Putnam County, all in the same day."
"The Democrats, like all of us in West Virginia, like to be appreciated," said Ellis. "They can forgive a lot if they at least see you out there trying hard, doing your best to put your best foot forward with them, and yes, making a strong case for your beliefs. John Raese has never had a hard time articulating his beliefs, and this time, he's making his case even more persuasively to the people, one vote at a time."
And Joe Manchin, isn't he out campaigning, too?
"Well yes, but not as hard as Raese," said Ellis. "Manchin didn't even send a representative to the big statewide WV for LIfe rally last weekend. But Raese was there. He made the time, he took their concerns seriously. That's what people want in a U.S. Senator. If Raese keeps this up, I don't see how Manchin can catch him now, and that is going to lead to a political earthquake on November 2nd in this state."
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