Oct. 1, 2010
Above and Below the Belt: The Raese/Manchin Campaign
2010 Campaign Analysis
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
West Virginians enjoy a good political scrap the same way they like a hard-fought boxing match. Politics is a contact sport, after all, and it's not for the faint of heart or thin-skinned.
But a certain sensitivity remains regarding the "rules of engagement" for political contests in West Virginia. For example, spouses and children are usually off limits, along with personal problems that have little or nothing to do with an individual's ability to serve in office.
Additionally, the candidate's livelihood is generally not attacked, because while the public likes to see a lively fight, they typically don't want to see anyone economically ruined by simply putting their hat in the ring.
According to some observers, Governor Joe Manchin has already crossed this line during this shortened campaign for U.S. Senate. HNN's senior political analyst Jack Ellis counts two times in just two weeks.
"The first time was when Manchin tried to suggest that John Raese is somehow
not "one of us," presumably because of his wealth," said Ellis. "That's getting
personal, and the evidence they presented in the ad has mostly been debunked.
Raese has never been for increasing taxes--he's campaigned for tax cuts for decades
now. And all Manchin provided on Workers' Comp regarding Raese's Greer
Industries was one case eleven years ago that was quickly brought up to speed."
"But everyone knows Raese's family is well off, so bringing that to mind was the real intent of this ad, not the slender evidence given but just an excuse to play class warfare," said Ellis. "West Virginians are far more concerned about their own economic situation these days than John Raese's. So that ad was a non-starter from the word go."
"The next ad, however, was more interesting," said Ellis. "What you've got here is a frontal assault on Raese's businesses at Greer Industries. Now this is a good company, one that has been awarded several awards for safety. Still, Manchin's people were able to dig up some safety violations that Greer has had over the years, though of course, everyone in the mining industry has some violations. But in this Upper Big Branch aftermath we're in, that could be explosive."
"But attacking an opponent's businesses when you're still the Governor could also cause some serious blowback for Manchin," said Ellis. "People don't like to see any Governor go after a private business for mere political reasons. If Manchin's argument is with Raese, he should keep it with him, not his employees. After all, they're just doing their jobs. They didn't ask for this."
"So if Greer Industries is able to effectively rebut Manchin's claims on Workers' Comp and Safety concerns, I think Manchin is in deep trouble," said Ellis. "Why? Because Raese's issue-based ads remain current while Manchin's personal attacks will have been neutralized."
"Voters will reward the candidate who talks about the issues the people are concerned about, especially during a recession," said Ellis. "They can live with Raese's hard-hitting issue ads, because at least they're relevant and above the belt. But take away Manchin's negative ads, and he's got very little in the cupboard to run on. Manchin has banked his entire campaign's treasury on these negative ads, but Raese is winning in all the latest polls. That should be telling the Governor something. He's on the ropes."
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Above and Below the Belt: The Raese/Manchin Campaign
2010 Campaign Analysis
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
West Virginians enjoy a good political scrap the same way they like a hard-fought boxing match. Politics is a contact sport, after all, and it's not for the faint of heart or thin-skinned.
But a certain sensitivity remains regarding the "rules of engagement" for political contests in West Virginia. For example, spouses and children are usually off limits, along with personal problems that have little or nothing to do with an individual's ability to serve in office.
Additionally, the candidate's livelihood is generally not attacked, because while the public likes to see a lively fight, they typically don't want to see anyone economically ruined by simply putting their hat in the ring.
According to some observers, Governor Joe Manchin has already crossed this line during this shortened campaign for U.S. Senate. HNN's senior political analyst Jack Ellis counts two times in just two weeks.
"The first time was when Manchin tried to suggest that John Raese is somehow
not "one of us," presumably because of his wealth," said Ellis. "That's getting
personal, and the evidence they presented in the ad has mostly been debunked.
Raese has never been for increasing taxes--he's campaigned for tax cuts for decades
now. And all Manchin provided on Workers' Comp regarding Raese's Greer
Industries was one case eleven years ago that was quickly brought up to speed."
"But everyone knows Raese's family is well off, so bringing that to mind was the real intent of this ad, not the slender evidence given but just an excuse to play class warfare," said Ellis. "West Virginians are far more concerned about their own economic situation these days than John Raese's. So that ad was a non-starter from the word go."
"The next ad, however, was more interesting," said Ellis. "What you've got here is a frontal assault on Raese's businesses at Greer Industries. Now this is a good company, one that has been awarded several awards for safety. Still, Manchin's people were able to dig up some safety violations that Greer has had over the years, though of course, everyone in the mining industry has some violations. But in this Upper Big Branch aftermath we're in, that could be explosive."
"But attacking an opponent's businesses when you're still the Governor could also cause some serious blowback for Manchin," said Ellis. "People don't like to see any Governor go after a private business for mere political reasons. If Manchin's argument is with Raese, he should keep it with him, not his employees. After all, they're just doing their jobs. They didn't ask for this."
"So if Greer Industries is able to effectively rebut Manchin's claims on Workers' Comp and Safety concerns, I think Manchin is in deep trouble," said Ellis. "Why? Because Raese's issue-based ads remain current while Manchin's personal attacks will have been neutralized."
"Voters will reward the candidate who talks about the issues the people are concerned about, especially during a recession," said Ellis. "They can live with Raese's hard-hitting issue ads, because at least they're relevant and above the belt. But take away Manchin's negative ads, and he's got very little in the cupboard to run on. Manchin has banked his entire campaign's treasury on these negative ads, but Raese is winning in all the latest polls. That should be telling the Governor something. He's on the ropes."
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