Sept. 19, 2010
Campaign 2010 Analysis: U.S. Senate Race
GOING FOR BROKE: Are Manchin's Negative Ads Backfiring?
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
While Joe Manchin's negative TV attack ads against his Republican opponent John Raese have generated a good bit of discussion across the Mountain State recently, a general consensus among political consultants and analysts suggests that the ads may not be working.
For example, in a recent interview on Metronews "Talkline," Dr. Robert Rupp of West Virginia Wesleyan College noted that Manchin's decision to go negative so early after Raese began his Obamacare ad is telling. "The very fact that he is launching this eight weeks into the campaign shows that there must be worries in the Manchin campaign and some of these charges Raese is raising," said Rupp.
But what about the content of the latest ad, one in which Manchin levies strong charges against Raese? For example, the ad states flatly that Raese would raise taxes on food and gasoline by 23% and that his Greer Industries has "repeated" examples of not paying their Workers' Comp debt.
Regarding the Workers Comp angle, not much evidence has been provided by the Manchin campaign in the footnotes in the ad. Ry Rivard, who is covering the campaign for the Charleston Daily Mail, wrote a story about Manchin's controversial ad, filed last week in that paper. Rivard noted that Greer Industries had only one minor infraction with Workers Comp, back in 1999.
Along with 950 other West Virginia companies, Greer paid the $26,000 debt and was forgiven $10,000 in interest. Rivard notes also that this was the only example cited by the Manchin campaign.
"How does this then become the grounds for saying in the ad that Raese's company were repeat offenders?" asked Jack Ellis, HNN's chief political analyst. "My word, there were 950 other companies in West Virginia who took part in that amnesty program, and if all Manchin could find on Raese's companies was one infraction in heaven knows how many years, well, that's rather small potatoes."
"Greer Industries is a respected company that has been doing business in West Virginia for the better part of a century," said Ellis. "They may have had a glitch, and they paid their debt. That was eleven years ago, and they've had no problems since then apparently. This is lacking in evidence bigtime."
How about the 23% tax increase on food and gasoline?
"Well, this is where they really messed up their chance to have something stick to Raese," said Ellis. "Everyone who has followed John Raese over the years knows that he is the biggest anti-taxer we've had on the West Virginia political scene in ages. He's never met a tax he liked, very much like his hero, Reagan. If they had said 5% or even 10%, maybe it would have been at least possibly credible. But 23%? Come on. Who believes that? So it undermines the whole ad in many people's minds after that figure gets bounced around. It's too extreme."
Will people see through ads that don't tell the whole story?
"Most of them, yes," said Ellis. "This ad might have had a chance to work twenty years ago, when people got their information purely from TV or radio ads in a campaign. But West Virginians, like most Americans, are much more informed politically through a variety of cable TV, radio, and online sources."
"So when they see something ridiculous, they get offended that a candidate would think they could be snowed by such weak arguments," said Ellis. "Manchin would be better off talking about any accomplishments he's had as Governor than pouring this mud out all the time. People are getting weary of it. I think the next poll will show that Manchin is already getting significant blowback on it. Let's face it, this was as risky play for the Governor, and he's going to find out soon whether it was a smart play or not."
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Campaign 2010 Analysis: U.S. Senate Race
GOING FOR BROKE: Are Manchin's Negative Ads Backfiring?
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
While Joe Manchin's negative TV attack ads against his Republican opponent John Raese have generated a good bit of discussion across the Mountain State recently, a general consensus among political consultants and analysts suggests that the ads may not be working.
For example, in a recent interview on Metronews "Talkline," Dr. Robert Rupp of West Virginia Wesleyan College noted that Manchin's decision to go negative so early after Raese began his Obamacare ad is telling. "The very fact that he is launching this eight weeks into the campaign shows that there must be worries in the Manchin campaign and some of these charges Raese is raising," said Rupp.
But what about the content of the latest ad, one in which Manchin levies strong charges against Raese? For example, the ad states flatly that Raese would raise taxes on food and gasoline by 23% and that his Greer Industries has "repeated" examples of not paying their Workers' Comp debt.
Regarding the Workers Comp angle, not much evidence has been provided by the Manchin campaign in the footnotes in the ad. Ry Rivard, who is covering the campaign for the Charleston Daily Mail, wrote a story about Manchin's controversial ad, filed last week in that paper. Rivard noted that Greer Industries had only one minor infraction with Workers Comp, back in 1999.
Along with 950 other West Virginia companies, Greer paid the $26,000 debt and was forgiven $10,000 in interest. Rivard notes also that this was the only example cited by the Manchin campaign.
"How does this then become the grounds for saying in the ad that Raese's company were repeat offenders?" asked Jack Ellis, HNN's chief political analyst. "My word, there were 950 other companies in West Virginia who took part in that amnesty program, and if all Manchin could find on Raese's companies was one infraction in heaven knows how many years, well, that's rather small potatoes."
"Greer Industries is a respected company that has been doing business in West Virginia for the better part of a century," said Ellis. "They may have had a glitch, and they paid their debt. That was eleven years ago, and they've had no problems since then apparently. This is lacking in evidence bigtime."
How about the 23% tax increase on food and gasoline?
"Well, this is where they really messed up their chance to have something stick to Raese," said Ellis. "Everyone who has followed John Raese over the years knows that he is the biggest anti-taxer we've had on the West Virginia political scene in ages. He's never met a tax he liked, very much like his hero, Reagan. If they had said 5% or even 10%, maybe it would have been at least possibly credible. But 23%? Come on. Who believes that? So it undermines the whole ad in many people's minds after that figure gets bounced around. It's too extreme."
Will people see through ads that don't tell the whole story?
"Most of them, yes," said Ellis. "This ad might have had a chance to work twenty years ago, when people got their information purely from TV or radio ads in a campaign. But West Virginians, like most Americans, are much more informed politically through a variety of cable TV, radio, and online sources."
"So when they see something ridiculous, they get offended that a candidate would think they could be snowed by such weak arguments," said Ellis. "Manchin would be better off talking about any accomplishments he's had as Governor than pouring this mud out all the time. People are getting weary of it. I think the next poll will show that Manchin is already getting significant blowback on it. Let's face it, this was as risky play for the Governor, and he's going to find out soon whether it was a smart play or not."
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Make HNN Your Homepage (IE Users Only)
