Sept. 11, 2010
Campaign 2010 Political Analysis
It's Official: Raese/Manchin Senate Race a "Toss Up"
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
Scoffers beware: this isn't your year. Only a couple of months
ago, the Rasmussen Poll showing a 51%-35% Joe Manchin
lead over John Raese in the West Virginia U.S. Senate Race.
Raese's chances of winning this contest then seemed possible
but rather remote.
Snapshot #2 showed dramatic improvement right after the two men won their primaries handily. In the second Rasmussen Poll, Raese had leaped to life like a springtime filly, galloping to within six points of Manchin. The numbers three weeks ago? 48% Manchin, 42% Raese.
In Snapshot #3, out just this past week, Raese continues to tighten things up in this most interesting of U.S. Senate races this year, narrowing the gap, gaining on the incumbent Governor to the tune of 48% Manchin, 44% Raese among likely voters. Rasmussen and other organizations have now moved this race from "leaning Democratic" to "toss up." The race is garnering national attention.
In the last two Rasmussen polls, Manchin seems stuck at 48%, which some political analysts claim is bad news for an incumbent.
"If you are holding office and can't get over 50% among likely voters, you're in potential quicksand," said Jack Ellis, Huntingtonnews.net's chief political analyst. "After all, these are the voters who know you well, have seen your performance for several years, and who are going to be voting. If you haven't persuaded them after four or more years in office, what can you really do now?"
"The momentum is obviously with Raese, who is really the first serious
competition Manchin has had since his 1996 loss to Charlotte Pritt,"
said Ellis. "Raese has eaten up almost ten points in a little over
a month, despite having to put up a hurry up offense on the field
thanks to the compressed schedule of this special election campaign.
"He is getting good traction on the Obamacare issue, which goes beyond the health care issue: it shows Manchin as being very tight with Obama, and that's devastating," said Ellis. "Clearly, Raese has the funding ability to be on TV from now until Election Day, especially with his having raised over $200,000 in the early days of the current general election season. So where does it get better for Manchin, you know?"
"But where does Raese go next?," asked Ellis. "You have to believe that he is wanting to look at the recession and its devastating impact on the West Virginia economy. Raese's favorite subject since his race against Rockefeller in 1984 has been improving West Virginia's economic condition. What can Manchin show in response to Raese's tough questions on unemployment, closed businesses, and a shrinking tax base? Manchin has been captain of the ship of state here for five years, so these are natural questions to ask."
"Finally, of late there's been a temperament issue," said Ellis. "We're still quite early in the campaign, and Manchin is already getting shrill. "The debates between these two should be mandatory viewing for political science classes around the state. I don't think Manchin's ever met a debater like Raese before, and I know he's never been in a political situation like this with partial responsibility for the state's joblessness."
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Campaign 2010 Political Analysis
It's Official: Raese/Manchin Senate Race a "Toss Up"
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
Scoffers beware: this isn't your year. Only a couple of months
ago, the Rasmussen Poll showing a 51%-35% Joe Manchin
lead over John Raese in the West Virginia U.S. Senate Race.
Raese's chances of winning this contest then seemed possible
but rather remote.
Snapshot #2 showed dramatic improvement right after the two men won their primaries handily. In the second Rasmussen Poll, Raese had leaped to life like a springtime filly, galloping to within six points of Manchin. The numbers three weeks ago? 48% Manchin, 42% Raese.
In Snapshot #3, out just this past week, Raese continues to tighten things up in this most interesting of U.S. Senate races this year, narrowing the gap, gaining on the incumbent Governor to the tune of 48% Manchin, 44% Raese among likely voters. Rasmussen and other organizations have now moved this race from "leaning Democratic" to "toss up." The race is garnering national attention.
In the last two Rasmussen polls, Manchin seems stuck at 48%, which some political analysts claim is bad news for an incumbent.
"If you are holding office and can't get over 50% among likely voters, you're in potential quicksand," said Jack Ellis, Huntingtonnews.net's chief political analyst. "After all, these are the voters who know you well, have seen your performance for several years, and who are going to be voting. If you haven't persuaded them after four or more years in office, what can you really do now?"
"The momentum is obviously with Raese, who is really the first serious
competition Manchin has had since his 1996 loss to Charlotte Pritt,"
said Ellis. "Raese has eaten up almost ten points in a little over
a month, despite having to put up a hurry up offense on the field
thanks to the compressed schedule of this special election campaign.
"He is getting good traction on the Obamacare issue, which goes beyond the health care issue: it shows Manchin as being very tight with Obama, and that's devastating," said Ellis. "Clearly, Raese has the funding ability to be on TV from now until Election Day, especially with his having raised over $200,000 in the early days of the current general election season. So where does it get better for Manchin, you know?"
"But where does Raese go next?," asked Ellis. "You have to believe that he is wanting to look at the recession and its devastating impact on the West Virginia economy. Raese's favorite subject since his race against Rockefeller in 1984 has been improving West Virginia's economic condition. What can Manchin show in response to Raese's tough questions on unemployment, closed businesses, and a shrinking tax base? Manchin has been captain of the ship of state here for five years, so these are natural questions to ask."
"Finally, of late there's been a temperament issue," said Ellis. "We're still quite early in the campaign, and Manchin is already getting shrill. "The debates between these two should be mandatory viewing for political science classes around the state. I don't think Manchin's ever met a debater like Raese before, and I know he's never been in a political situation like this with partial responsibility for the state's joblessness."
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