Sept. 9, 2010
Campaign 2010 Analysis: Oliverio Loses Most of His Lead
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
What a difference a post-primary summer can make. According to
Public Opinion Strategies, a reputable Northern Virginia-based polling firm,
First Congressional District Republican nominee David McKinley has sawed
off Democratic nominee Mike Oliverio's lead enough to make it a single digit
race.
According to Public Opinion Strategies, the race is now Oliverio 41%, McKinley 36%, only a 5 point difference. That is a stark contrast with the poll taken by the lesser known Democratic consultant used by Oliverio's campaign earlier, Hamilton Strategies, out of Fernandina Beach, Florida. Back in late August, Hamilton Strategies claimed that their polling showed a 52% Oliverio, 36% McKinley race.
Even if both polls are completely accurate, that's an eleven-point drop by Oliverio in just three months. The Oliverio campaign's excuse? "David McKinley's been lying about Mike Oliverio since May," said Oliverio spokesman Randy Coleman in a September 7 story by Jess Mancini in the Parkersburg News and Sentinel.
"This is just laughable, really juvenile," said Jack Ellis, Huntingtonnews.net's chief political analyst. "You notice that Oliverio's spokesman, Mr. Coleman, fails to explain what exactly McKinley and his campaign have been lying about. Maybe he's afraid to repeat whatever McKinley's saying out of fear that people will find it credible.
"In any event, every sensible campaign knows you get nowhere calling your opponent names. It makes Oliverio look insecure, like he's worried. Worse, his spokesman is whining like a stuck pig. Who wants a Congressman with such thin skin. Oliverio will start to get a reputation as the kind of guy who can dish it out but can't take it, and that's a losing proposition in West Virginia politics."
Other results from the Public Opinion Strategies poll showed that Oliverio's "favorables"
have fallen significantly. Meanwhile, McKinley's "intensity quotient," his ratings among
those paying close attention to the race is now higher than Oliverio's. Moreover, those
polled who have an opinion of both candidates also go to McKinley by over ten points.
"Look, this is a decent poll by the same well-known polling firm that is used by folks like Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito and U.S. Senator John McCain," said Ellis. "Everyone in the business knows about the credibility of Public Opinion Strategies. Not everyone knows about Hamilton Campaigns of Fernandina Beach, Florida, at least not around here. Maybe when Oliverio is fighting it out with Mollohan in the 2012 primary to see who gets to take on Congressman David McKinley, he'll go with a more famous Democratic pollster like Garin-Hart. They may cost a little more, Mike, but you know what? We've at least heard of them."
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Campaign 2010 Analysis: Oliverio Loses Most of His Lead
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
What a difference a post-primary summer can make. According to
Public Opinion Strategies, a reputable Northern Virginia-based polling firm,
First Congressional District Republican nominee David McKinley has sawed
off Democratic nominee Mike Oliverio's lead enough to make it a single digit
race.
According to Public Opinion Strategies, the race is now Oliverio 41%, McKinley 36%, only a 5 point difference. That is a stark contrast with the poll taken by the lesser known Democratic consultant used by Oliverio's campaign earlier, Hamilton Strategies, out of Fernandina Beach, Florida. Back in late August, Hamilton Strategies claimed that their polling showed a 52% Oliverio, 36% McKinley race.
Even if both polls are completely accurate, that's an eleven-point drop by Oliverio in just three months. The Oliverio campaign's excuse? "David McKinley's been lying about Mike Oliverio since May," said Oliverio spokesman Randy Coleman in a September 7 story by Jess Mancini in the Parkersburg News and Sentinel.
"This is just laughable, really juvenile," said Jack Ellis, Huntingtonnews.net's chief political analyst. "You notice that Oliverio's spokesman, Mr. Coleman, fails to explain what exactly McKinley and his campaign have been lying about. Maybe he's afraid to repeat whatever McKinley's saying out of fear that people will find it credible.
"In any event, every sensible campaign knows you get nowhere calling your opponent names. It makes Oliverio look insecure, like he's worried. Worse, his spokesman is whining like a stuck pig. Who wants a Congressman with such thin skin. Oliverio will start to get a reputation as the kind of guy who can dish it out but can't take it, and that's a losing proposition in West Virginia politics."
Other results from the Public Opinion Strategies poll showed that Oliverio's "favorables"
have fallen significantly. Meanwhile, McKinley's "intensity quotient," his ratings among
those paying close attention to the race is now higher than Oliverio's. Moreover, those
polled who have an opinion of both candidates also go to McKinley by over ten points.
"Look, this is a decent poll by the same well-known polling firm that is used by folks like Congresswoman Shelley Moore Capito and U.S. Senator John McCain," said Ellis. "Everyone in the business knows about the credibility of Public Opinion Strategies. Not everyone knows about Hamilton Campaigns of Fernandina Beach, Florida, at least not around here. Maybe when Oliverio is fighting it out with Mollohan in the 2012 primary to see who gets to take on Congressman David McKinley, he'll go with a more famous Democratic pollster like Garin-Hart. They may cost a little more, Mike, but you know what? We've at least heard of them."
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