Aug. 23, 2010
Could Hechler Surprise on August 28th?
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
The conventional wisdom is that Ken Hechler is a beloved elder statesman of West Virginia politics, a kind of endearing old uncle who never quite learned how to retire. He's still got his trademark red Jeep, he's still raising hell, this time about mountaintop removal, and in debates and interviews he's still sharp as a tack.
But no one expects him to actually beat Joe Manchin in the August 28th special primary election for U.S. Senate, right?
Well, let's take a look at the numbers before answering that.
In 2008, the West Virginia Democratic Party had a little over 665,000 registered Democrats. Traditionally, in off-Presidential election year primaries, the percentage of registered voters who actually vote is much smaller than, say, a general election in a Presidential election year.
For example, in the Democratic primary election of 2006, even with Robert Byrd on the ticket, only 185,000 of those 665,000 registered Democrats took time to vote. That's only 28% of the total number of registered Democrats statewide.
Now that is with a primary election date that everyone knows well in advance and is accustomed to considering participating in on the first Tuesday in May. It's a time of year on the political calendar that has been that way for decades in West Virginia.
So even if a voter has forgotten or not heard about an upcoming primary election, once April comes around, the memory of primary elections past may be triggered and they are reminded to find out when the exact date of the primary election is.
"The irony to this speeded up process Governor Manchin put into place to his apparent advantage is that it could backfire on him," said Jack Ellis, a political consultant from Putnam County. "The only people who are bound to vote in this special primary election for U.S. Senate are those who are really fired up for their candidate. Many other people will miss it entirely, because who in West Virginia has voted before in a primary in late August? If this thing isn't well-publicized, it will go right over most people's heads."
"If less than a third of the registered Democrats vote in a standard primary off-year election, well, what is the turnout likely to be in a crazy year like this?" said Ellis. "Twenty percent? Ten? The lower the turnout, the better the news for Hechler and his zealous followers, no doubt about it.
"Let's go somewhere in between, say fifteen percent of the Democrats find out about this election and vote," said Ellis. "That's less than a hundred thousand votes, folks. Does Hechler have 50,000 friends? How about combining Hechler's friends with Manchin's enemies in the party? A lot of people's passion in politics comes from wanting to vote against a person or an issue. So while Hechler is still unlikely to win, on the other hand, he could do much better than people think. You've got to watch Red Ken."
The special primary election for both Republicans and Democrats running for the U.S. Senate will be held this Saturday, August 28th.
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Could Hechler Surprise on August 28th?
By Huntingtonnews.net Staff
The conventional wisdom is that Ken Hechler is a beloved elder statesman of West Virginia politics, a kind of endearing old uncle who never quite learned how to retire. He's still got his trademark red Jeep, he's still raising hell, this time about mountaintop removal, and in debates and interviews he's still sharp as a tack.
But no one expects him to actually beat Joe Manchin in the August 28th special primary election for U.S. Senate, right?
Well, let's take a look at the numbers before answering that.
In 2008, the West Virginia Democratic Party had a little over 665,000 registered Democrats. Traditionally, in off-Presidential election year primaries, the percentage of registered voters who actually vote is much smaller than, say, a general election in a Presidential election year.
For example, in the Democratic primary election of 2006, even with Robert Byrd on the ticket, only 185,000 of those 665,000 registered Democrats took time to vote. That's only 28% of the total number of registered Democrats statewide.
Now that is with a primary election date that everyone knows well in advance and is accustomed to considering participating in on the first Tuesday in May. It's a time of year on the political calendar that has been that way for decades in West Virginia.
So even if a voter has forgotten or not heard about an upcoming primary election, once April comes around, the memory of primary elections past may be triggered and they are reminded to find out when the exact date of the primary election is.
"The irony to this speeded up process Governor Manchin put into place to his apparent advantage is that it could backfire on him," said Jack Ellis, a political consultant from Putnam County. "The only people who are bound to vote in this special primary election for U.S. Senate are those who are really fired up for their candidate. Many other people will miss it entirely, because who in West Virginia has voted before in a primary in late August? If this thing isn't well-publicized, it will go right over most people's heads."
"If less than a third of the registered Democrats vote in a standard primary off-year election, well, what is the turnout likely to be in a crazy year like this?" said Ellis. "Twenty percent? Ten? The lower the turnout, the better the news for Hechler and his zealous followers, no doubt about it.
"Let's go somewhere in between, say fifteen percent of the Democrats find out about this election and vote," said Ellis. "That's less than a hundred thousand votes, folks. Does Hechler have 50,000 friends? How about combining Hechler's friends with Manchin's enemies in the party? A lot of people's passion in politics comes from wanting to vote against a person or an issue. So while Hechler is still unlikely to win, on the other hand, he could do much better than people think. You've got to watch Red Ken."
The special primary election for both Republicans and Democrats running for the U.S. Senate will be held this Saturday, August 28th.
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