Total Recall 2: Arnold Wins
By Mike Bayham

Dear Friends,

If there were to ever be a political comparison to the OJ Simpson trial, itwould be the California gubernatorial recall and election.  The slice ofhumanity that anteed up to secure their place on the ballot alone woulddissuade all alien explorers from any further investigation about intelligentlife on the blue-green sphere we call Earth.

The candidates included a porn star, a porn publisher, a diminutive child starwho has been featured on the seamy E! program "True Hollywood Story",and a comedian who elicits laughter by smashing large gourds with ahammer.  It should be noted that an entire half percent of the voterssupported candidates directly connected to the porn industry.  

One has to wonder if General Santa Ana did not truly win the Mexican-AmericanWar by giving us California.

In an ironic twist, the Democrats carped about lurid stories about the past sexlife of the Republican frontrunner in addition to accusations of criminalassault by him on a bevy of women, though using Newt Gingrich's 1998 playbookbrought about as much success to the Gray Davis cause as it did for theGOP.  

The contest itself was temporarily canceled until the rest of the black robedbrethren realized that they could only get away with so much judicialtomfoolery outside of New Jersey.  And somewhere buried within this globof chaos, there was a genuine exercise in democracy.

The liberals can hem and haw over the cost, the fairness, and the legitimacy ofthe recall, but there are three numbers they cannot argue with.

The first number is 53%, the percentage of voters in California thatparticipated in the election.  Davis and co. had wanted to postpone therecall election to the Spring of 2004 under the guise of securing a higherturnout, though their ulterior motives were obvious.  

Because George W. Bush has not picked up a primary challenger while theDemocrats are slugging it out for their party nomination, the presidentialprimary would be frontloaded with Democratic voters.  Secondly, the laterelection would buy Gray Davis more time to improve conditions within thestate.  And third, Republicans tend to be "chronic" voters,meaning people more apt to vote in every election regardless of turnout projections.

The turnout for the special election that removed Davis from office exceededthat of the regularly scheduled 2002 election, 50.7% turnout, that put him backin Sacramento.

The second number is 55.3%, which is the percentage of voters that told GrayDavis to get the hell out of the governor's mansion.  Over one millionvoters in California put their "John Hancock" on a piece of paper toput him on the ballot.  4,536,262 followed through on telling the governor"Hasta Lavista, Baby".

The most damning number is 63%, which is the number of votes cast for the majorRepublican gubernatorial candidates (Arnold Schwarzenegger, Tom McClintock, andPeter Ueberroth) in the election.  With the lone exception of PeteWilson's stewardship, California has hardly been "Golden" for the GOPsince 1988, which was the last time a Republican carried the state in apresidential election.  

Though Schwarzenegger's 48% is hardly representative of conservative support inCalifornia, you can bet that a large portion of the moderate governor-elect'svote came from conservatives who chose to do the pragmatic thing (end the reignof Davis) instead of the most principled course (vote for McClintock).

Now before everyone starts beating up on Tommy McClintock for sticking in therace, there are two things that need to be mentioned on his behalf.  One,the polls showed that the McClintock campaign in no way endangeredSchwarzenegger's gubernatorial bid.  If anything, many of McClintock'speople would have probably stayed home rather than vote for the lesser of twoliberals.  In fact, it could be said that McClintock helped Schwarzeneggerwin the election because his presence on the ballot helped make the recallhappen.  

63% voted for Republican candidates for governor, but only 55.3% voted for the recallof Gray Davis.  I would bet my Ford Escort that at least 90% of theMcClintock people voted for their candidate AND the recall, while the "YesArnold, Recall" rate was not as high.  A Schwarzenegger"victory" without the recall would have been Pyrrhic and of littlevalue aside from being a premature setup for a possible run in 2006.  

The people of California took part in the most remarkable political mulligan ofall time, kicking to the curb the same man they had elected less than a yearago.  For Gray Davis, the recall election brings to an end a politicalcareer that should not have gone as far as it has. To the victor, goes theproblems as Arnold Schwarzenegger will soon be contending with a Democraticlegislature and a budget that might make dealing with the "pukepolitics" of the campaign look like a piece of cake.

Respectfully,

Mike Bayham